Italy has been battered by extreme weather events for years. In August 2021, the highest temperature ever recorded in Europe was reported in Sicily. According to the European Severe Weather Database, Italy was hit by 2500 extreme weather events in 2023, over1499 extreme weather events in 2020 compared to 380 extreme weather events in 2010. In 2024 there are currently 2390 extreme weather events that have occurred in Italy!
The total population of Italy declined last year by 3 per cent or 179,000. This was after net migration of 129,000, and no births in Italy except for migrants for 3 months in 2023! In 1976 Italian fertility fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per female. It fell as low as 1.20 in
The demographic trends in Italy present a complex and concerning picture of population decline. The country has experienced a significant decrease in its total population, primarily due to a combination of low birth rates and net migration patterns. The fact that there were no births in Italy except for migrants for a period of three months in 2023 underscores the severity of the situation.
This decline is further exacerbated by the long-standing issue of fertility rates falling below the replacement level of 2.1 children per female. The historical data reveals fluctuations in fertility rates over the years, with some regions showing a slight rebound while others continue to struggle. However, the overall trend indicates a downward trajectory in population growth. As of 2024, only one region in Italy has managed to meet the minimum target level of 1.5 children per female, and this achievement is largely attributed to its large migrant population. Other regions, such as Sicily and Central Italy, lag behind significantly in terms of fertility rates, with averages well below the desired level for population replacement.
Projections from the United Nations paint a bleak future for Italy's population growth, with estimates suggesting that the country may fall short of its target of 48 million by 2070. Instead, forecasts indicate a more substantial decline to less than 34.3 million by the same year, with a notable portion of the population comprising migrants from North Africa.
These demographic shifts not only have implications for Italy's social and economic landscape but also raise important questions about the sustainability of its population. Addressing the root causes of low fertility rates and effectively managing migration patterns will be critical in shaping the future demographic profile of Italy.
Population rebounded in some regions to 1.45 in 2010. It is now declining again. It has not reached 1.5 since 1983. Only one region in Italy in 2024 meets the minimum target level of 1.5 children per female and that is because it is an area with a large migrant population. The next closest number is 1.35 from Sicily. Central Italy has an average of just under1.16. The UN does not think Italy will hit its 48 million population targets by 2070. With most forecasting a bigger decline to less than 34.3 million by 2070 and a significant portion of them will be migrants from North Africa.
Since 2023, over 20,000 migrants from North Africa have arrived on the Italian island of Lampedusa. Italy lacks a definitive plan for their future. The Italian population reached its zenith in 2015 with just over 60 million people, yet the current figures indicate a 30 percent decrease over 55 years.
Comentarios