Is Climate Change Causing the Global Birth Dearth?

If so, focusing on abortion rights as a way to increase dwindling populations is an exercise in futility!


limate change has likely been contributing to a steady decline in the U.S. birth rate, researchers said, predicting as many as 100,000 fewer babies born each year by the end of the century. Data shows the number of babies born drops in the eight to 10 months after a spate of days on which the average temperature exceeds 80°F (26.6 °C), according to research by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-partisan group based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

The effects from rising temperatures, a symptom of climate change, have become a significant concern globally. In recent years multiple studies from Norway to California have uncovered that for each additional day with a maximum temperature of 30–32 °C (86–89.6 °F), relative to a day with a temperature of 28–30 °C (82.4–86 °F), decreases the birth rate 9 months later by 0.24%, or 92 babies per month in South Korea and that days with a mean temperature above 80°F cause a large decline in birth rates in the USA 9 months later to the tune of 10,000 less births a year for each hot day. This result is robust to various specifications and samples. The Alan Barrecca study also found that the impact of the temperature did not vary according to the mother’s social characteristics, including education and age only race meaning it affected black and brown populations to a lesser degree meaning more melanin less impact. That is, high temperature has no differential effect on mothers of different backgrounds except for in its severity. Finally, we found no significant temperature effect on birth outcomes, but we cannot rule out that children born 9 months after summer heat are a selected (healthy)

Research has also shown that rising temperatures negatively affected sperm function and reproductive success, with male sperm production sometimes declining by as much as 30%. The sperm that was produced often struggled to migrate into the female tract, and were more likely to die before successful fertilization. Comparison of semen analyses collected in the summer and winter have found similar results. A 1988 study of men in New Orleans found that semen specimens collected during the summer had “significantly lower sperm concentration, total sperm per ejaculate, percent motile sperm, and motile sperm concentration than samples provided at other times of year,” especially for men whose jobs were not air-conditioned.

The same research team followed up with a small study of men in San Antonio in 1990. Again, they found that summer spelled “significant reductions” in sperm concentration (32%), total sperm count (24%), and sperm motility (28%). They also found that the impact of heat was most detrimental on men who already had lower semen parameters. White men produce greater volumes of semen on average, however, Asian men have higher sperm concentrations and total sperm count. The advantage that men of color have is not in sperm count per se but in the ability to protect the sperm they have. For men with a high skin eumelanin level (Black and Brown) scrotal melanin protects mature sperm from UV damage, and from oxidative damage. Melatonin has been shown to be an effective antioxidant and the most potent physiological scavenger of hydroxyl radicals.

Recent studies have shown that melatonin is able to protect human spermatozoa from apoptosis and DNA fragmentation induced by reactive oxygen species . In addition, it can improve the percentage of motile human sperm. In semen from Mithun, melatonin has been shown to develop sperm with DNA integrity, viability and intact plasma membrane. Melatonin is stored and released from the pineal gland to the bloodstream. Melanin is stored in melanocytes. Melatonin controls pigmentation changes by aggregation of melanin into the melanocytes within the skin, causing the skin to change color. Melanin is produced as a defense mechanism. Sunlight is the major cause of increased melanin production.

The U.S. birthrate has largely been on the decline over several decades, although the number of births increased slightly in 2014, according to the Centers for Disease Control and prevention. Air conditioning could mitigate some of the impact of climate change on fertility, the study said. However, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the potent greenhouse gases used in air conditioning, would contribute to global warming group. This problem had largely been ignored as people were more concerned with the global overpopulation of the third world nations such as India and Sub Saharan countries that they never thought to consider that under population was the real threat. Currently ALL European Nations, Australia, China, Japan, Macau, Singapore, S. Korea Are below replacement level fertility. Meaning they cannot sustain their populations unless this changes. To date historically no country has ever rebounded from that situation.

According to the most recent UN estimates, almost one half of the world’s population lives in countries with below replacement fertility, meaning the country has a total fertility rate (TFR) below 2.1 births per woman. Of these nations, one-quarter have TFRs close to the replacement level, i.e. between 1.8 and 2.1; the other three-quarters have REALLY LOW fertility, below 1.8 births per woman. Low-fertility countries are generally grouped into clusters. The main clusters are in East Asia, Southern Europe, the German-speaking countries of Western Europe, and all the former socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe! In short countries where the populations are lacking in significant amounts of melanin which protects populations from DNA damage from sunlight.

In fact, with the exception of sub Saharan Africa and Southern India contemporary fertility around the globe is lower than it has ever been. Since the middle of the 20th century, childbearing has declined by 60 percent: 50 to 60 years ago women in developed and developing countries combined had on average 5 children, but now the world average is about 2.5 children per woman. In 2020, Pakistan had the highest fertility rate among the countries of South Asia, with a fertility rate of just under 3.4.At four children or more per women on average, fertility rates in island countries such as Timor-Leste and Samoa are high. With approximately 3.85 births per woman, Timor-Leste had undoubtedly the highest fertility rate throughout the whole Asia-Pacific region in 2020. The likes of Pakistan, Samoa, and Mongolia followed with the second and third highest fertility rates respectively. While China expects to lose half its population by 2060!

Timor-Leste was a Portuguese colony from the sixteenth colony until its independence on November 26, 1975. A week later, Indonesia invaded the new state and declared it the 27th province. The occupation sparked a violent conflict between the Indonesian military and the separatists. Between 1997 and 1998, the United Nations successfully negotiated a ceasefire, and Timor-Leste became the first new state of the 21st century. It joined the United Nations in 2002. East Timor is one of the only two countries in Southeast Asia that are predominantly Christian, the other being the Philippines. The current fertility rate for Philippines in 2022 is 2.479 births per woman, a 1% decline from 2021. The fertility rate for Philippines in 2021 was 2.504 births per woman, a 1.03% decline from 2020. The fertility rate for Philippines in 2020 was 2.530 births per woman, a 0.98% decline from 2019.