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Has The Depopulation Bomb Dropped?

Worldwide population implosion for non black populations!

For decades now, All non black countries have been unable to sustain a population replacement birth rate, including Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, North India South Korea, Canada, Japan, and, most ominously, China. The societal and social impacts of this phenomenon are vast.The replacement level or a net reproduction ratio of one means that there's one baby girl born for every childbearing woman who's gonna make it up to childbearing age herself. What this means is that a society is on a long-term trajectory for population stability without compensating immigration or anything like that, to keep things at stability or above. For 30 years before the crash of 2008, almost 30 years, the United States was the lone large rich society that was at replacement or slightly above the replacement level, above this let's say 2.1 births per woman, per lifetime level roughly speaking.

We have slumped steadily since 2008, we've been on an escalator going down. And of course the COVID shock didn't get everybody into the bedrooms, having babies, it actually had the opposite effect. The United States is now maybe on track to be 20% below the replacement level if current trends continue, which is a weasel word we always have to use because demographers are really pretty clueless about forecasting fertility into the future. But if current trends continue, the United States would be on a track without compensating immigration, to shrink 20% for each generation, with the exception of African Americans and Afro Hispanics that are seeing growth with each succeeding generation especially since making abortions illegal. Russia's in a worse case, China from the point of view of population is in worse circumstances still. In spite of having eliminated the one-child policy, Chinese just aren't having children. The birth rate was 1.3.

We're back to a moment where it is very plausible to think our population may peak and decline. The latest information from the Census Bureau reports that US population growth, measured US population growth, never been as tiny as it was last year. And that's births, deaths and immigration make for the total. We've never had a confluence of births, deaths and immigration that ended up with such a fractional increase in US population since we started collecting measurable statistics.


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