80% of Americans say rising food prices are making it harder for them to afford groceries and 72% believe that climate change is already contributing to rising food prices in the U.S. Women (81%) are more likely than men (74%) to report being impacted by rising food prices!
Now, new research suggests a warming planet is already increasing the price of food and could sharply drive up inflation in the years to come. A working paper by researchers at the European Central Bank and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research analyzed historic price fluctuations along with climate data to figure out how that has affected inflation in the past, and what those effects mean for a warming world.
The upshot: Women are more vulnerable to food price spikes. They are more likely to earn less, more likely to be primary caregivers and more likely to be responsible for buying food for their household. As a result, food price inflation is an immense source of strain and worry for women across the globe. Climate change has already pushed up food prices and inflation overall, the researchers found. Looking ahead, meanwhile, continued global warming is projected to increase food prices. The USDA predicts that for 2024, grocery store prices will increase 7.5%. It expects increased prices for nine food categories to stick around, including poultry, dairy products, fats and oils, and cereal products. Prices of beef, pork and fresh fruits, should see modest rises. “In 2024, all food prices are predicted to increase 2.8%, with a prediction interval of -2.0% to 7.9%.
According to a Fortune Magazine article "Last summer, a blistering heat wave in Europe caused crops to wilt, rivers to dry up, and workers to stay indoors to escape scorching temperatures. The economic blow was expected to cause prices to rise even further, magnifying inflation sparked by the Ukraine war, although experts at the time were reluctant to quantify by how much. The numbers are in now, but even though climate change had a measurable impact on prices last year, it’s nothing compared to how much warmer temperatures, natural disasters, and unpredictable weather patterns will affect inflation a decade from now.
Earth.Org Reports that Coupled with external climate change factors, human activities necessary to maintaining global stability are also threatened. A report from the International Panel on Climate Change concluded that the industries of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and aquaculture are beginning to struggle to meet demands. Crop yields are compromised by deteriorating surface ozone, caused by greenhouse gas emissions, increasing temperatures, and warmer, drier conditions. Viable food production zones and growing areas are experiencing decline, causing mismatches in biological events such as flowering and pollinator emergence.
At sea, flooding and marine heatwaves create production losses and disturbances to fish resources, thereby lowering nutritional capacities. Together, these factors have resulted in global food price inflation. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global food prices have jumped more than 73% since mid 2020, reaching their highest levels in March 2023. Food-at-home prices were 3.0 percent higher in August 2023 compared to August 2022, Food commodity prices are also up by a third compared to the previous year amid disruptions to supply chains. This has led to more food protectionism, which in turn could push costs even higher.